Gold Price Forecast 2025: Will Precious Metals Prices Go Up?

Explore the price and investment outlook for gold, silver, platinum and palladium for 2025. We are referring to the latest forecast by Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, a sister company of GOLD AVENUE. 

Before we look at what could happen next year, let's do a quick recap on how gold performed in the last 12 months.

2024 was an eventful year for gold. The price of the yellow metal soared by around 30% to $2,648 per ounce. A number of factors contributed to this, including political uncertainty as a result of the US election, interest cuts by the Federal Reserve, strong gold buying by central banks and conflicts in eastern Europe and the Middle East.

So, the big question is: will this trend continue into 2025? It’s tricky to predict the future, but GOLD AVENUE’s expert Nicky Shiels will examine the possibilities.

Here’s what you will learn in this blog:

⭐ Nicky’s key drivers for precious metals

⭐ Gold price outlook 2025

⭐ Silver price outlook 2025

⭐ Platinum price outlook 2025

⭐ Palladium price outlook 2025

First, let’s delve into the factors that influence the price of precious metals and how they might play out in 2025.

What will influence precious metal prices in 2025?

Nicky has highlighted several key drivers that are likely to influence the price of gold and other precious metals in 2025:

🏦 Driver #1 - Federal Reserve interest rate cuts

📈 Driver #2 - Inflation

💵 Driver #3 - Strength of US Dollar

🇨🇳 Driver #4 - China’s economy

🛢️ Driver #5 - Outlook for commodities

🌎 Driver #6 - Geopolitical tensions

Let’s break them down:

Driver #1 - Federal Reserve interest rate cuts

“The pace of Fed cuts and trajectory is quite uncertain, which should inject macro volatility. What matters more is what the market thinks the Fed will do, not what the Fed actually does, and there is an inbred dovish bias. Nonetheless, a synchronized easing cycle, in North America, Europe, Asia, AND China will boost global economic growth, importantly from a higher growth base.”

-Nicky Shiels

The relationship between interest rates and gold prices has historically been inverse, with gold gaining value as interest rates drop. We’ve seen that this year, as gold is up more than 30% in 2024.

It’s because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold decreases when rates decline, which makes the precious metal more attractive and drives up prices.

Economists are forecasting that the Fed will continue to cut rates next year, although by how much – and how fast – is uncertain. Inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, the US economy is growing faster than expected, and Donald Trump's tariff, tax and immigration policies could change the financial landscape in unpredictable ways in 2025. So, lower rates could be good for gold. But, the gold market operates within a complex tangle of factors that extend beyond monetary policy.

Driver #2 - Inflation

“Inflation will structurally remain higher for longer given deglobalisation, Trump’s tariffs, deregulation and tax cuts, the complex energy transition, synchronised central bank rate cuts, the fiat debasement trend and wealth effect (into equities and Bitcoin), and plenty of global liquidity. The Fed doesn’t have inflation in a chokehold, and with further cuts, given tight credit spreads and Gold & US stocks near all-time highs (ATHs), that will continue to drive animal spirits and inflation expectations.”

-Nicky Shiels

Gold is considered a safe haven investment to hedge against the impact of inflation, as its value typically rises as the pricing power of the currency in which it is priced falls. As a result of persistent inflation over the past several years, more investors have been turning to gold – and the gold price has risen by more than 80%.

On 10th December 2024, the price of gold hit a two-week high due to concerns around inflation and the US economy. The spot gold price hit $2,622 per ounce, with a rise of 1.7% over the course of that week. However, the price slipped ahead of the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year, which brought expectations of rate cuts in 2025.

Driver #3 - Strength of US Dollar

“The threat of trade tariffs and US-phoria/US exceptionalism is keeping the US Dollar very strong, which is a rising destabilising force for the world economy, particularly emerging markets. An ‘America First’ policy requires a weaker US Dollar, which could pan out later in the year. There is the risk of an international grand deal – in exchange for a reduction in American tariffs, there will be a coordinated and gradual depreciation of the US Dollar. The US Dollar is strong but will end less strong.”

-Nicky Shiels

The US Dollar is headed for its biggest annual rally since 2015. This is because of a combination of higher interest rates, the U.S.'s relatively stronger economic performance, global uncertainty, and its continued dominance as the world's primary reserve currency. All of these factors make the Dollar more attractive to investors.

But, Nicky states, this might change during 2025. The potential drivers of a weaker dollar next year could include: a shift in global economic growth favouring other regions, potential Fed rate cuts, and a gradual reduction in global demand for the dollar (dedollarisation).

Driver #4 - China’s economy

“The adjustment in monetary policy towards ‘moderately loose' and plans for more proactive fiscal measures in 2025 (aimed at ramping up domestic consumption and stabilizing both property and stock markets) are significant. China has now really joined the reflation party. China achieving 5% growth is more likely than not compared to previous years.”

-Nicky Shiels

China's shift to moderately loose monetary policy could lead to higher inflation expectations, a weaker yuan, and potential economic instability – all of which could be positive for gold. This is because these economic challenges could lead investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset.

The gold price in China reached record highs in 2024 and the price in RMB surged by 28% by the end of November. Domestic factors that lead to this include: a depreciating RMB, strong investment and economic uncertainties – including global drivers, like conflicts.

Driver #5 - Outlook for commodities

“Despite stronger global growth, the outlook for commodities is mixed, given the still strong US Dollar, US policy uncertainty around the green / energy transition, and diverging fundamentals. There are downside risks to oil (current supply backdrop and ‘drill baby drill’). There is a mixed outlook for Copper and a constructive outlook for precious metals, especially silver.”

-Nicky Shiels

According to Nicky, the outlook for 2025 for commodities is uncertain. Gold may face some challenges from a strong U.S. dollar, but regional market dynamics and continued central bank easing could be positive for gold in 2025 – especially if global uncertainty or inflation concerns persist.

Driver #6 - Geopolitical tensions

“2024 saw peak geopolitical risk, especially given the expectations around the US elections. But in 2025, Trump neither creates more nor less geopolitical uncertainty compared to what the global economy experienced in 2024. With the US leaving a vacuum on the international stage, rebel groups will increasingly seek political change or to gain independence, so geopolitical risk remains.”

-Nicky Shiels

Precious metal prices increased by about 20% this year, partly fuelled by uncertainty created by conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

In 2025, the unknowns around Trump’s second term – with possible trade tariffs, restrictive immigration policies, and potential escalation in international disputes – could mean prices stay high.

These are all key macroeconomic factors that have far-reaching impacts on everything from gold to stocks, bonds, energy bills and the cost of living. Therefore, it's worth paying attention to them if you're planning on investing in gold in 2025.

What is the precious metals price forecast for 2025?

The price of the S&P 500 — the index that tracks the performance of 500 leading companies in the US — has increased nearly 28% in 2024. And while that's impressive, gold has performed even better. At the beginning of 2024, the price of gold was $2,076. As of Dec. 19, it is $2,637. This is an increase of more than 29%.

Nicky says: “Gold is in a secular bull market, but the direction of travel won’t be as one-directional in 2025 as in 2024. Peak political fear is behind us following Trump’s decisive win, compounded by the US focus on deregulation, tax cuts, and tariffs (not wars).”

She adds: “Central Bank buying trends will continue at similar pace in 2025 vs. 2024, but flows will remain more discreet given the threat of Trump tariffs on countries perceived to be actively dedollarising.”

So what will 2025 bring – and will there be any surprises? Find out below.

The gold price outlook in 2025:

Base case:

Average: $2,750/oz

Low: $2,500/oz

High: $3,200/oz

Probability: 50%

The Bullish* case: ~ $3,500/oz. Nicky predicts the probability of this scenario is 20%

The Bearish* case: ~ $2,200/oz. The probability of this scenario is 30%

(*Bullish means investors expect prices to go up, bearish means they expect prices to go down)

Nicky's ingredients for a bullish case scenario for the price of gold in 2025:

• Persistent but unknown central bank buying programme.
• Escalation of geopolitical crises.
• The Federal Reserve struggling with inflation (Trumpflation) and rising US debt. The only solution may be a weaker US dollar.
• US asset demand is high.
• Gold is under-owned. Generalist investors aren’t holding much gold, or are underinvested in it.
• US weakens its own currency: US policy, directly or indirectly, drives down the dollar’s value.
• Policy error leads to loss of trust. A mistake by the Fed or central banks could erode confidence in the global financial system, leading to faster currency debasement.

Nicky's ingredients for a bearish case scenario for the price of gold in 2025:

• US dominance continues. US exceptionalism and asset growth remain strong, so the US dollar stays high for a while.
• Political & geopolitical risks easing. Trump possibly striking deals in the Middle East and with Russia.
• Trumpflation & Fed policies: Inflation from Trump’s policies and a more aggressive Fed will tighten financial conditions, leading to significant disinvestment.
• Lack of hedging. Producers and scrap metal buyers aren't hedging aggressively, meaning they'll have to sell if prices drop sharply.
• Specialist gold investors are over-invested, while general investors are focused on other, higher-yielding assets.
• US embracing cryptocurrency.
• Gold’s historical trends: Gold has had short price spikes over the last 30 years.
• Market signals: Two signals suggest a price top for gold: 1) Central bank buying/selling often marks price extremes, and 2) A surge in retail demand and products.
• Physical demand for gold may not live up to expectations, and rallies may be ignored as global growth picks up again.

Nicky’s verdict on the price of gold in 2025:

“High inflation, ongoing deglobalisation, currency debasement, central bank dedollarisation, messy and unpredictable geopolitics, unsustainable global debt paths, and an under-owned general investor community ensure that gold remains a safe asset diversifier.”

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The silver price outlook in 2025

Base case:

Average: $36.50/oz.

Low: $28/oz

High: $42/oz

Probability: 50%

The Bullish case: ~ $45/oz. Nicky predicts the probability of this scenario is 35%

The Bearish case: ~ $22/oz. The probability of this scenario is 15%

Nicky's ingredients for a bullish case scenario for the price of silver in 2025:

• Gold and copper both outperform.
• Strong industrial demand driven by renewable energy and government support.
• A solid rebound in China and pent-up demand for many commodities.
• Ongoing supply shortages and stockpiling.
• Supply issues surface during price rallies.

Nicky's ingredients for a bearish case scenario for the price of silver in 2025:

• Gold’s bull market peaks and drops due to the macroeconomic factors mentioned above.
• Industrial demand falls sharply because of unexpected changes in Trump’s policies on the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act), climate initiatives, or tariffs.
• A hard economic landing in China, the US, or Europe adds to the downturn.

Nicky’s verdict on price of silver in 2025:

“Silver is to outperform all precious metals in 2025 given synchronized central bank rate cuts, a more supportive China and US macroeconomic backdrop, still strong solar demand, and ultimately a lower US Dollar trajectory.”

👉 Click here to check the current price of silver and set up instant market alerts.

Platinum price outlook in 2025

Base case:

Average: $1,050/oz

Low: $900/oz

High: $1,200/oz

Probability: 50%

The Bullish case: ~ $1400+/oz. Nicky predicts the probability of this scenario is 30%

The Bearish case: ~ $700-/oz. The probability of this scenario is 20%

Nicky's ingredients for a bullish case scenario for the price of platinum in 2025:

• Supply disruptions, deeper production cuts, or sanctions on Russian supply.
• US policy changes or stricter vehicle emission standards boost demand for ICE or hybrid cars.
• Ongoing tight physical market conditions lead to hoarding and strong investment inflows. Strong economic growth in China and/or Europe driven by fiscal and monetary stimulus.
• The Amplats demerger from Anglo American in mid-2025 sees a market bottom.
• Increased production of green hydrogen and electrolyzers leads to higher stockpile.

 
Nicky's ingredients for a bearish case scenario for the price of platinum in 2025:

• A recession (hard landing) in China, the US or Europe
• High interest rates and a US dollar liquidity squeeze lead to massive deleveraging (3.6 million ounces of platinum in investor products).
• China’s recycling of all platinum group metals (PGMs) in autocatalysts becomes a global trend.

Nicky’s verdict on the price of platinum in 2025:

“The threat to demand stems from higher tariffs on global growth, especially if Trump tariffs target OEM parts suppliers, which will negatively impact US ICE production and future demand. Trends in auto demand and related policy will be critical for prices in 2025. Expected higher floors, rangebound pricing (i.e.: short-term conviction is low) with a market that is itching for a bullish catalyst.”

👉 Click here to check the current price of platinum and set up instant market alerts.

Palladium price outlook in 2025

Base case:

Average: $1,050/oz

Low: $850/oz

High: $1,300/oz

Probability: 50%

The Bullish case: ~ $1500+/oz (25% probability)

The Bearish case: ~ $500-/oz (25% probability)

  
Nicky's ingredients for a bullish case scenario for the price of palladium in 2025:

• Supply disruptions, deeper production cuts from platinum-rich mines, or restrictions on Russian supply.
• US policy or stricter vehicle emission standards boost demand for ICE or hybrid cars.
• Stronger-than-expected growth in China sparks pent-up consumer demand.
• Battery electric vehicle adoption growth slows dramatically, especially in China.
• Large-scale investor short-covering or renewed interest in the market.

Nicky's ingredients for a bearish case scenario for the price of palladium in 2025:

• Increased Russian commodity supplies and inventory destocking.
• A hard landing (recession) in China, the US, or Europe.
• China’s recycling of all PGMs in autocatalysts spreads globally.
• Battery electric vehicle adoption picks up in the US and Europe.
• Autocatalyst recycling in China grows rapidly.

Nicky’s verdict on the price of palladium in 2025:

“The larger threat to demand stems from higher tariffs on global growth, especially if Trump tariffs target OEM parts suppliers, which will negatively impact US ICE production and future demand. The persistent net short futures positioning, largely hinging on “the death of ICE,” will be tested in 2025 on slower EV penetration trends, hybrid continuation, and the threat of Trump emission regulation/policy/tariff changes.”

👉 Click here to check the current price of palladium and set up instant market alerts.

In a nutshell: Gold and silver will likely gain value in 2025

According to Shiels, 2025 is not only a new year – but another “new opportunity for another record high.” But, she adds, the “bear risks” are increasing, and the price of precious metals is unpredictable – so there are no guarantees.

Gold is in a “secular bull market” – so price rises are likely – but the “direction of travel won’t be as one-directional in 2025” as it was in 2024.

She also expects silver to increase in value with gold, thanks to more investor demand.

Other platinum group metals, including platinum and palladium, could face pressure due to slower economic growth. Shiels adds that platinum will likely continue to surpass palladium as investment demand grows.

So there you have it – our predictions for 2025. Let’s see what the next 12 months have in store for us.

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